All this polling data is starting to make me dizzy. Last week the President looked unbeatable. The Governor's back was up-against the wall. His entire campaign hinged on his debate performance. Billionaire donors held their breath. Then....the debate. The immediate post debate reaction....Romney won, Obama lost. It took the polling data time to catch up....now the polls show a virtual dead heat, with Romney leading in quite a few polls...including Gallup. And the money is pouring in for him. Is this a hiccup? Can a "poor" debate performance cause all of this? Will the American people fire a President because he was looking down at the podium and taking notes? Have the American people started to buy the Romney snake oil? Well the answer is yes......and no.
We've gone through something similar to this before. In Rachel Maddow's blog, " A Trip Down Memory Lane" (9 October 2012), she recalls that after the first George Bush-John Kerry debate in 2004, Kerry was immediately declared the winner. Before the debate Bush had led by 8 points in most polls. His lead evaporated after the debate. Kerry went on to lead him by a narrow margin for quite a while. Bush eventually was able to bounce back, and of course win re-election, albeit by a narrow margin.Will the President regain his lead in the polls, therefore regaining his mojo? Elections are the only time that I wish for the ability to time travel and peek at the November 7 headlines.
Although Mr. Obama still has the Electoral College advantage, it still bothers me as to why the polls are so close. It really baffles me as to why Romney has taken a lead. Were people that impressed by him during the debate, or was it the media's abject rejection of Obama afterwards? An editorial in the Washington Examiner said that the media has "loved Mr.Obama to death." Noemie Emery, who wrote the column indicated that the President felt that he would be protected by his friends in the media after the debate. She went on to say "so he believed he could mail it in Wednesday, but this was the venue that could not be spun. No filter. No edits. No choosing what to put in or leave out. No shaping of the story. Just the story itself, rolled out in real time, sans narration, before 70 million American voters, undoing six years of hype and hysterics. It revealed one small, not all that keen academic, having been inflated by the narrators beyond all recognition, dissolving before everyone's eyes." (N. Emery, The Washington Examiner, 9 October 2012)
Although I fundamentally disagree with Ms. Emery, I do agree that the media, that had supported Obama just 90 minutes earlier, were about to crown Romney "King of Debates" afterwards. The Chris Matthew's "Where was Obama?" whine does come to mind. I refuse to believe that a 90 minute debate debacle can negate everything that the President has accomplished in his administration. And the slick old "Snideley-Whiplash" like snake-oil saleman, has captured the attention, poll numbers and maybe the heart, of the American people. (Somebody check the train tracks....I know there is a Nell tied down there somewhere)
If I had a large enough megaphone, I would remind folk that this is the same guy who clearly stated that he didn't care about 47% of us. This is the same guy who said let General Motors go bankrupt. This is the same guy who went took a trip overseas this summer, and almost single-handedly trashed the United States' diplomatic standing in the world. This is the same guy who spoke out about the situation at the embassy in Libya, before the President had a chance to, and before all the facts were known. This is the same guy who put on an over-rehearsed acting job at the first debate....who probably flip-flopped in mid sentence a couple of times....and he's leading in the polls. This is the guy that you want walking around with the nuclear codes? Obviously some people do. But I digress.
Maybe this is some sort of Democratic strategy.We can't peak too early. Like I mentioned a couple of blogs ago, if Obama's lead looks insurmountable, people may not go to the polls, and Romney could become an "accidental" President.So let's hold back a little bit. Let the polls go willy-nilly. Let the base think about our situation for a bit. Let's give them motivation to put up a fight. Let's fill email boxes with more $5.00 contribution requests.( yep....I went there) Then right before Democratic panic sets in.....POW, we KO Romney at the next debate. And the one after that. And we finish him in the one after that. No looking down, no Mr. Nice-Guy ( Mr. Obama told the Tom Joyner Show that he was just "too polite" during the debate)....and No Big-Bird. Unemployment goes down even further....people overwhelm the polling places on November 6.....done deal. Right?
We still have a long road ahead. Four weeks in an election cycle is a political lifetime. Almost anything can happen. The polling is disturbing, but there is still a lot of work to be done. The base has to be motivated. We have to get the word out.We still need to phone bank, canvass, sign wave, and organuze. The Obama message has to resonate. We have to let folks know that a debate performance does not define a President. We have to talk about all the accomplishments of the administration, and assure the American people that the nation is indeed moving forward.
But despite our efforts, this election is Obama's to win or lose. In my opinion his first administration has been a brilliant one. There have been a few bumps in the road, but what presidency hasn't had a few bumps. There have been no scandals, no hidden agendas, no major gaffes in this administration. ( ok...maybe the beer summit) Just an example of a guy who has plowed through and worked hard for this country, despite major obstacles. And the country is showing signs of a comeback, from the devastation of the previous administration. If anyone deserves a second chance, Mr. Obama does. It will be up to the American people though, to re-elect a statesman.....or fall for the wiles of a "snake-oil salesman!"
Early Voting starts on October 27th Maryland..........VOTE PEOPLE!
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